A predictive model of hospitalisation and death from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease - 07/08/11
, William Anderson b, Steve Morant a, Janet Winter c, Philip Thompson d, Daniel Pettitt e, Thomas M. MacDonald a, John H. Winter b
Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 (0) 1382 660111.Summary |
Rationale |
A recent study showed that doctors are excessively pessimistic about the prognosis in patients with COPD and suggested that a simple tool to predict outcome is needed.
Methods |
In a prospective observational study, 3343 patients with an FEV1<80% of the predicted value and FEV1/FVC<70% were selected from a clinical network of patients screened for COPD in Tayside, Scotland. Data were collected during annual visits on demography, spirometry, smoking history, medical research council (MRC) dyspnoea scale, body mass index (BMI) and other variables. The main outcome measures were hospitalisations and death secondary to COPD. A proportional hazard model was used to identify significant risk factors.
Results |
Increasing age, low BMI, worsening MRC dyspnoea score, decreased FEV1, and prior respiratory or cardiovascular admission hospitalisation were predictors of poor outcome. Influenza vaccination was protective.
Conclusion |
We have developed a model that estimates the risk of respiratory hospitalisation and death in patients with COPD.
Le texte complet de cet article est disponible en PDF.Keywords : COPD, Predictive model, Hospitalisation, Death
Plan
Vol 103 - N° 10
P. 1461-1467 - octobre 2009 Retour au numéro
Article précédent
- The relation between age and time to maximal bronchoconstriction following exercise in children
- Daphna Vilozni, Amir Szeinberg, Asher Barak, Yaacov Yahav, Arie Augarten, Ori Efrati
- Defining chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in older persons
- Carlos A. Vaz Fragoso, John Concato, Gail McAvay, Peter H. Van Ness, Carolyn L. Rochester, H. Klar Yaggi, Thomas M. Gill
Déjà abonné à cette revue ?